Recherche — Vincent Grégoire
Documents de travail
Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket
avec Pat Akey, Nicolas Harvie, Charles Martineau
Investing in Artificial General Intelligence
Noisy FOMC Returns? Information, Price Pressure, and Post-Announcement Reversals
avec Oliver Boguth, Adlai Fisher, Charles Martineau
Relative Performance Evaluation for Asset Managers: A Quantitative Assessment
avec Juan Sotes-Paladino
Size Distortions in Robust Estimators: Implications for Asset Pricing
avec Nicolas Harvie, Anthony Sanford
MeatPy: A Python Framework for Limit Order Book Reconstruction and Analysis
avec Charles Martineau
Publications
Price Revelation from Insider Trading: Evidence from Hacked Earnings News
Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 143, Issue 3, 2022
avec Pat Akey, Charles Martineau
How is Earnings News Transmitted to Stock Prices?
Journal of Accounting Research, Volume 60, Issue 1, 2022
avec Charles Martineau
Inverted Fee Structures, Tick Size, and Market Quality
Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 134, Issue 1, 2019
avec Carole Comerton-Forde, Zhuo Zhong
Shaping Expectations and Coordinating Attention: The Unintended Consequences of FOMC Press Conferences
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Volume 54, Issue 6, 2019
avec Oliver Boguth, Charles Martineau
The Rise of Passive Investing and Index-linked Comovement
North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 51, 101059, 2020
Actes de conférence
Extracting the Structure of Press Releases for Predicting Earnings Announcement Returns
Proceedings of the 6th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance, 2025
avec Yuntao Wu, Ege Mert Akin, Charles Martineau, Andreas Veneris
Mitigating Spillover Effects of Ransomware in Financial Markets: Lessons from the LockBit Attacks
International Symposium on Foundations and Practice of Security, 2025
avec Frederic Schlackl, Alina Dulipovici
Travaux étudiants supervisés
Circular Economy: A Fintech Driven Solution for Sustainable Practices
Fintech and Sustainability: How Financial Technologies Can Help Address Today's Environmental and Societal Challenges, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 149-168, 2023
avec Kevin Guay
HFTViz: Visualization for the exploration of high frequency trading data
Information Visualization, Volume 21, Issue 2, 2022
avec Javad Yaali, Thomas Hurtut
Alternative Data
Big Data in Finance: Opportunities and Challenges of Financial Digitalization, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 13-33, 2022
avec Noah Jepson
Autres contributions à la recherche
Documents de travail permanents
Publications pré-doctorat
Using copulas to model price dependence in energy markets
Energy risk, Volume 5, Issue 5, 2008
avec Christian Genest, Michel Gendron
Visible and infrared imagery for surveillance applications: software and hardware considerations
Quantitative InfraRed Thermography Journal, Volume 4, Issue 1, 2007
avec Amar El-Maadi, Louis St-Laurent, Hélène Torresan, Benoit Turgeon, Donald Prévost, Patrick Hébert, Denis Laurendeau, Benoit Ricard, Xavier Maldague
Investing in Artificial General Intelligence
Résumé
Frontier AI laboratories racing toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) face uncertain timing of transformative demand and must decide how much irreversible capacity to build and how to split it between inference (current revenue) and training (future capability). I develop a real-options model with regime switching, duopoly competition, endogenous default risk, and diminishing returns calibrated to AI scaling laws. The model delivers analytical investment triggers and a duopoly preemption equilibrium in which the leader trains more and invests earlier than the follower. A "faith-based survival" mechanism emerges: training raises the expected post-AGI continuation value, lowering the default boundary-the hope of AGI keeps the firm alive. An asymmetric dilemma arises in which aggressive overinvestment carries higher downside risk than conservative underinvestment. Calibration to four AI lab archetypes illustrates how heterogeneity in beliefs about AI timelines drives cross-sectional variation in investment behavior.
Notes
Cet article a été rédigé avec une aide importante d'IA. Tous les détails sur mon blog : https://vincent.codes.finance/posts/vibe-research-paper/
BibTeX
@unpublished{gregoire2026agi,
title={Investing in Artificial General Intelligence},
author={Gr{\'e}goire, Vincent},
note={Working Paper},
year={2026},
url={https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6305300}
}